Nikolay Marin – South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, Faculty of Law and History, Bulgaria, Blagoevgrad, 2700

Mariya Paskaleva – South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, Faculty of Economics, Department of “Finance and Accounting“

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/EMAN.2020.55


4th International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2020 – Economics and Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times, Online/Virtual, September 3, 2020, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; ISBN 978-86-80194-30-1, ISSN 2683-4510

Abstract:

In this paper we analyze the changes of the EU’s investment policy provoked by the mixed
trade agreements. The EU’s investment policy has turned towards attaining bilateral trade agreements.
One of these “new-generation” agreements is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement
(CETA). It is in a process of being ratified by the national parliaments of the EU members. This study
is focused on the general characteristics of CETA and the eventual problems posed by its regulatory
and wide-ranging nature. We prove that the significance of this agreement pertains not only to the
economic influence, that it will have on the European and Canadian economies, but CETA is also the
first trade agreement to have been negotiated with a focus on investment protection and a change in the
EU’s investment policy. The current study reveals the influence arising from the conclusion of CETA
on the Bulgarian economy with an emphasis on electronic industry, machinery industry and manufacturing.
We estimate both – the direct and indirect effects on Bulgaria’s exports, imports, value added
and employment. In order to estimate the influence, we apply the multi-regional input-output model. It
is proved that CETA will have a low but positive impact on the Bulgarian economy. After constructing
different scenarios of development, we prove that the influence of CETA on the Bulgarian economy will
amount to 0.010% GDP. The average total employment will be increased by more than 172 jobs in Bulgaria,
which in turn, relative to the labor market, represents less than 0.01% of the total employment.

Keywords:

International Investment Agreement, CETA, Investment Court System.

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