Vesna Jablanovic – University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11081 Belgrade, Serbia
6th International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2022 – Economics and Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times, Ljubljana, Slovenia, March 24, 2022, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; ISBN 978-86-80194-57-8, ISSN 2683-4510
The basic aims of this paper are: firstly, to create the simple chaotic crude oil prices growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibrium, cycles, or chaos; secondly, to discover a sequence of Elliot waves in crude oil prices movements in the period 1998-2015; and thirdly, to analyze the local stability of crude oil prices in the period 1998-2015. This paper confirms the existence of the convergent fluctuations of crude oil prices in the observed period.
Crude Oil; Prices; Chaos; Elliot Waves
Aguilera R. F., Radetzki M., & Tekniska L. (2015). The Price of Oil. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Benhabib, J., & Day, R. H. (1981). Rational choice and erratic behaviour. Review of Economic Studies, 48, 459-471.
Benhabib, J., & Day, R. H. (1982). Characterization of erratic dynamics in the overlapping generation model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 4, 37-55.
Carollo S. (2012). Understanding Oil Prices: A Guide to What Drives the Price of Oil in Today’s Markets. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Day, R. H. (1982). Irregular growth cycles. American Economic Review, 72, 406-414.
Day, R. H. (1983). The emergence of chaos from classical economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98, 200-213.
Frost A.J. & Prechter R.P. (2006). Elliott Wave Principle: A Key to Market Behavior. https://0104. nccdn.net/1_5/1d1/31d/37b/A.J.-Frost–Robert-Prechter—Elliott-Wave-Principle.pdf.
Goodwin, R. M. (1990). Chaotic economic dynamics. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Grandmont, J. M. (1985). On endogenous competitive business cycle. Econometrica, 53, 994-1045.
Hamilton D.J. (2008). Understanding Crude Oil Prices. NBER Working Paper 14492 DOI 10.3386/w14492.
Imsirovic A. (2021). Trading and Price Discovery for Crude Oils Growth and Development of International Oil Markets. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Jablanovic, V. (2016). A Contribution to the Chaotic Economic Growth Theory. Roma: Aracne editrice S.r.l.
Li, T., & Yorke, J. (1975). Period three implies chaos. American Mathematical Monthly, 8, 985-992.
Lorenz, E. N. (1963). Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 20, 130-141.
Lorenz, H. W. (1993). Nonlinear dynamical economics and chaotic motion (2nd ed.). Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
May, R. M. (1976). Mathematical models with very complicated dynamics. Nature, 261, 459-467.
McNally R. (2017). Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices (Center on Global Energy Policy Series) Kindle Edition. New York: Columbia University Press.
Medio, A. (1993). Chaotic dynamics: Theory and applications to economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Roncaglia A. (1983). The Price of Oil: Main Interpretations and Their Theoretical Background. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Vol. 5, No. 4 (Summer, 1983), pp. 557-578 (22 pages) https://www.jstor.org/stable/4537770
Yoshino N. & Alekhina V. (2019). Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level over the Last Two Decades. ADBI Working Paper Series, July 2019, No 982. Asian Development Bank Institute.