Kirill Kurilov, Anastasia Kurilova
Togliatti State University, 445667, Togliatti, Belorusskaya street, 14, Russian Federation
​​​​DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/EMAN.2018.367


2nd International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2018 – Economics and Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times, Ljubljana – Slovenia, March 22, 2018, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; Faculty of Management Koper, Slovenia; Doba Business School – Maribor, Slovenia; Integrated Business Faculty –  Skopje, Macedonia; Faculty of Management – Zajecar, Serbia, ISBN 978-86-80194-11-0


Abstract​

The global automotive industry is an important component of the global economy. Data of statistical observations of the development of the automotive industry allow us to conclude that the global industry recovered from the 2008-2009 crises and resumed growth. By the end of 2016, the volume of registered vehicles increased more than two times in comparison to 1996. It is important to predict the development of the automotive industry in different countries. The principles of Boston consulting group matrix were used for forecasting. The cluster analysis method was used for the objectivity of the assessment in the preparation of the Boston consulting group matrix. The distance between the available objects was calculated using Euclidean distance. The indicators used include the dynamics of the growth in the number of registered vehicles and the share of a particular country in the total volume of registered vehicles. Country grouping of car manufacturers made it possible to divide countries into clusters that reflect the position of countries in the global market of vehicles. The assessment showed an objective division of the whole set of countries into four groups, which are characterized by the following features.
The first group of countries has a large market share, more than 1 per cent, and a growth rate of more than 4 per cent. The leader of this group is China. The increase in the volume of registered vehicles in 2015 compared to 2014 amounted to 10.36 %. This group includes other countries with significant production volumes of cars, such as India, Indonesia, Iran and Turkey. This group in accordance with the BCG matrix can be attributed to the “stars”.
The second group “question” includes 92 countries; their main characteristic is quite high growth rates-more than 2 %, the maximum growth rate in the countries of this group – 18 %.
Further development of production in these countries will depend on various factors – demand for automotive products; – attractiveness of production for import, etc.
The third group of countries “money bags” consists of 10 countries with a significant market share, more than 1 %, and a significant growth rate of more than 1.3 %. The leader of this group is the USA, whose share in the total registered vehicles is 20.6 %, and the rate of increase is 2.33 percent.
The fourth group of countries – “dogs” – consists of 27 countries. Their main characteristic is the minimal market share and negative or minimal growth rates. The maximum growth rate does not exceed 2 %. The prospects of this group for the production of vehicles are uncertain, as factors affecting the sale of products – demand and cost of production – do not allow for market growth.
The grouping showed the possibility of using the cluster analysis and matrix of the Boston consulting group (BCG) for forecasting in the market of vehicles.
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Key words

Cluster analysis, matrix of the Boston consulting group, vehicles, forecast.


References

  1. Kurilov K.Yu. (2007) Analysis of the development of the world automotive industry at the present stage, Aimpress, 3, pp. 33-34..
  2. Kurilov K.Yu. (2012) The place and role of the Russian automobile industry in the world automotive industry following the results of 2010, Audit and financial analysis, 3, pp. 411-419.
  3. OICA (2016) Motorization rate 2015 – Worldwide, OICA: [Online], [Retrieved: 14.02.2018], https://www.oica.net/category/vehicles-in-use/.
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