Peter Adamko
​University of Zilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, Department of Quantitative Methods and Economic Informatics, Univerzitna 1, 010 26 Zilina, Slovak Republic
Tomáš Klieštik
University of Zilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, Department of Economics, Univerzitna 1, 010 26 Zilina, Slovak Republic
Mária Kováčová
University of Zilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, Department of Economics, Univerzitna 1, 010 26 Zilina, Slovak Republic
​​DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/EMAN.2018.223


2nd International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2018 – Economics and Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times, Ljubljana – Slovenia, March 22, 2018, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; Faculty of Management Koper, Slovenia; Doba Business School – Maribor, Slovenia; Integrated Business Faculty –  Skopje, Macedonia; Faculty of Management – Zajecar, Serbia, ISBN 978-86-80194-11-0


Abstract​

The goal of this paper is to create and evaluate a GLM model that predict whether a Slovak company will find itself in a crisis in the following year. Paper also provide an overview of metrics used to evaluate the quality or effectiveness of a model.
The data used to create and test the model are from years 2014/2015 and 2015/2016, respectively. The data was obtained from amadeus – a database of comparable financial information for public and private companies across Europe (www.bvdinfo.com). For each year we had data about 100 000 Slovak companies. To test the performance of the model we used a standard metrics (AUC, Sensitivity, Confusion Matrix, RMSE, …). 
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Key words

Default, prediction model, company in a crisis


References

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  3. Kliestikova, J., Misankova, M., Kliestik. T. (2016). European insolvency law harmonisation in terms of global challenges. Globalization and its socio-economic consequences, 16th international scientific conference proceedings, pts i-v. p. 914-921.
  4. Majerova, J., Kliestik T., Misankova, M. (2015). Analysis of Convergences and Divergences of Bankruptcy Law Institutes in the Slovak Republic and in the World. 5th international conference on applied social science (ICASS 2015), PT 1 Book Series: Advances in Education Research, Volume: 80.
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  6. Svabova, L., Kral, P. (2016). Selection of predictors in bankruptcy prediction models for Slovak companies. Prague: 10th international days of statistics and economics. pp. 1759-1768.



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